## Decline of Tudou Guarantee Marketplace
A notable Telegram-based marketplace, Tudou Guarantee, recognized for facilitating a wide array of illicit services, appears to be scaling back its operations. Recent insights from the blockchain analytics firm Elliptic indicate that Tudou Guarantee has largely halted transactions across its public Telegram groups, marking a significant downturn after a period of rapid expansion. The platform is estimated to have generated over $12 billion in transactions, placing it among the largest illicit marketplaces historically.
### Current Operations
Despite the apparent decline in its guarantee services, other sections of Tudou Guarantee, particularly its gambling operations, remain active. This raises questions about whether the marketplace is heading toward a complete shutdown or simply shifting focus away from fraud-related activities. There are similar Telegram marketplaces, such as HuiOne Guarantee and Xinbi Guarantee, which collectively facilitated upwards of $35 billion in USDT transactions. Telegram has previously taken action to close down multiple channels associated with such services.
### Market Shift and Services Offered
Tudou Guarantee’s rise has led many vendors, previously selling through HuiOne Guarantee, to transition to this platform, offering a range of illicit services. These include selling stolen personal information, facilitating money laundering, and providing technical solutions for scams, such as fraudulent investment schemes and phishing operations. Criminals have leveraged sophisticated technologies, allowing them to create highly realistic identities and compelling content, which enhances the scale of their fraud operations.
A report from Chainalysis, published in November 2025, highlighted that vendors of scam-related technologies received approximately $375.9 million in cryptocurrency over the past year, with AI service vendors marking an astounding growth rate of 1,900% from 2021 to 2024. This technological advancement allows fraudsters to create convincingly deceptive personas and streamline their exploitation tactics.
### Financial Dynamics in the Marketplace
Notably, the shift in vendors to Tudou Guarantee wasn’t coincidental. In December 2024, HuiOne Guarantee acquired a 30% stake in Tudou, which strategically positioned Tudou as a fallback for vendors affiliated with HuiOne. This financial intermingling indicates a complex relationship within these platforms and suggests a calculated approach to maintaining a foothold in the illicit marketplace landscape.
### Government Actions and Market Responses
According to Elliptic’s Founder and Chief Scientist, Tom Robinson, Xinbi Guarantee has shown resilience, bouncing back following Telegram’s crackdown. He noted that there remains a consistent number of active markets within this illicit space. Following the suspension of HuiOne Guarantee, Telegram has taken a hands-off approach, allowing these illicit platforms to operate with reduced fear of intervention.
The downturn for Tudou Guarantee may also reflect recent law enforcement actions against the Cambodian conglomerate Prince Group. The group’s CEO, Chen Zhi, was arrested and extradited to China, facing serious allegations tied to a vast investment scam exploiting trafficked workers in Southeast Asia. This connection suggests that the upheaval surrounding Tudou may extend beyond typical marketplace dynamics, hinting at broader implications within organized crime networks.
### Real-Time Monitoring and the Future of Scam Economies
Elliptic has been vigilant in monitoring Tudou’s main administrative wallets and observed a sharp decline in activity shortly after Chen Zhi’s arrest, indicating a probable correlation between these events. As Elliptic noted, the loss of Tudou signifies a significant disruption within the Southeast Asian scam economy, though there is skepticism regarding the permanence of this gap. Historical patterns suggest that the vacuum left could soon invite new or existing marketplaces to absorb the displaced participants without delay.
### Law Enforcement Initiatives
Governments are increasingly proactive in tackling these criminal networks. In November 2025, the U.S. established the Scam Center Strike Force, aimed at dismantling transnational criminal organizations responsible for cryptocurrency fraud and schemes, including so-called “pig butchering.” So far, this initiative has successfully seized over $401 million in cryptocurrency linked to these operations. Authorities are engaging with U.S. companies to disrupt the infrastructural underpinnings of these scams and minimize their impact on American citizens.
