During the Navy Submarine League’s 2026 Annual Symposium, Rear Admiral Chris Cavanaugh, Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet’s submarine forces, underscored the escalating threats posed by the submarine capabilities of China and Russia. His remarks highlighted the rapid advancements in submarine technology and production, which could significantly challenge U.S. undersea dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s Expanding Submarine Fleet
RADM Cavanaugh identified the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as the foremost threat to U.S. naval operations, particularly due to its accelerated submarine production capabilities. He noted that the PLAN has introduced eight Type 093B (Shang III) nuclear fast attack submarines (SSNs) into service within a span of just four years. U.S. assessments suggest that this production rate is sustainable for at least the next decade, potentially resulting in 20 to 40 additional Shang III or improved SSNs being operational in that timeframe.
The Shang III represents a significant qualitative leap over its predecessors, incorporating advanced quieting technologies, a vertical launch system with 24 cells, and enhanced propulsion methods. Cavanaugh emphasized that these advancements could classify the Shang III as an entirely new class of submarine, reflecting China’s commitment to iterative development in its naval capabilities. He stated, “It points to the idea that China is ready to iterate. They build Shang, they build Shang III, and they’re onto the next thing.”
In addition to the Shang III, the U.S. Navy is closely monitoring the development of the Type 095 nuclear guided missile submarine, which features innovative design elements such as X-form rudders and pump jet propulsion. These developments, along with the Type 096 and Type 094 classes of nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), are crucial for enhancing China’s nuclear deterrent and second-strike capabilities.
Infrastructure and Strategic Doctrine
RADM Cavanaugh also pointed out the extensive infrastructure being developed to support China’s growing submarine fleet. This includes not only the physical facilities for construction and maintenance but also improvements in operational doctrine that enhance the strategic and tactical use of nuclear submarines. The U.S. Navy assesses that these developments are part of a broader strategy to bolster China’s undersea warfare capabilities.
Russian Submarine Developments
Following his analysis of the Chinese threat, Cavanaugh turned his attention to Russia, which he described as the second most significant undersea threat to U.S. interests. He highlighted Russia’s ongoing investments in its submarine fleet, particularly the Project 955 Borei-class SSBNs, which are integral to Russia’s strategic deterrent posture. The U.S. Navy is also wary of the capabilities presented by Russia’s Yasen-class submarines, which are known for their stealth and ability to carry a range of advanced munitions, including hypersonic missiles.
“If you saw a graph of undersea defense threats, they’re growing rapidly,” Cavanaugh remarked, emphasizing the combined threat from both Russian and Chinese submarine fleets. He noted that while Russia’s surface fleet faces challenges due to aging vessels and budget constraints, its submarine force remains a potent element of its military strategy.
North Korea’s Emerging Threat
RADM Cavanaugh concluded his remarks by addressing North Korea’s submarine capabilities, which, while less advanced than those of China and Russia, still pose a notable threat. The recent unveiling of North Korea’s first nuclear-powered submarine and advancements in torpedo and propulsion technology indicate a growing capability that could complicate the strategic landscape in the region. However, Cavanaugh cautioned that the validity of North Korea’s claims regarding these advancements remains uncertain.
As the U.S. Navy continues to assess the evolving undersea threat environment, the developments in submarine technology and production by China, Russia, and North Korea will require ongoing scrutiny and strategic adaptation to maintain undersea dominance.
For further insights into the implications of these developments, see the full report on Naval News.
